There is so much we don’t know, which means we must resort
to what we do know.
First, we live in a world of unprecedented complexity. Many of the conflicts occurring in the Middle
East and Africa are seemingly unresolvable, and for the United States, the past
30 years have brought home to us the costs and consequences of oversimplified
approaches. Now we know that any political
or military intervention on our part is likely to be far more divisive than it
is unifying, altering relationships and adding layers to the complexity. When we choose our allies, we also choose our
enemies, and a ripple effect of polarization ensues.
Second, we know that our world has become hyper-connected. Never before has so much information been so
easily available and accessible. While
in the past, information would flow as if in a canal through clearly defined
and controlled channels, today that flow is more akin to the Everglades,
spreading in all directions and nurturing growth. Information is flooding societies with the
credible and the incredible. But the
sheer volume of it means that both control of it and the assignment of
credibility have shifted irreversibly from those who generate the information
to those who receive it. Social media
has made the world social in a way that we could never have imagined.
Yes, the level of connectivity and complexity has increased
dramatically in recent years, and while technology has changed the means of communication, the methods of
influencing behavior have remained basically the same for centuries.
History tells us that great leadership is both measured and
defined by one’s ability to get people to do what they want them to do. There is a broad range of tactics to influence
behavior, but all of them can be distilled down to three basic methods, each
with varying levels of effectiveness.
The first method is Force,
which includes not only the tip of a bayonet, the implementation of regime
change, or the water boarded illusion of suffocation, but the threat of these as
well, including all other physical, political or economic levers to generate
the desired outcome. At its simplest, Force applies the principle of negative
reinforcement, better known as the “stick”.
The second method is Persuasion,
in which the leader does not need to resort to force because they are able to communicate
the intimate connection between the desired behavior and the resulting reward with
such clarity that their audience is compelled to follow. This is positive reinforcement, also known as
the “carrot”.
And finally there is Example,
in which the audience simply observes and reacts in response to model behavior that
is visibly beneficial. Through their observation,
they are inspired and motivated to follow without any need for either force or
persuasion. The motivating factor is
neither stick nor carrot, but the individual act of will to behave in a way that will achieve a similar outcome.
What distinguishes Example
from the other two methods of influence is its ability to fully respect and
rely upon the will of the follower. This very human element is completely ignored
when force is being used, and subject to various communication barriers in the
case of persuasion. It is only by
following an example that the will is fully empowered and exercised through the
unconstrained choices of the follower. For
this reason, Example is the most
powerful and sustainable means of influencing behavior. There is no threat of a violent backlash in
the case of force, and no risk of being misled in the case of persuasion. The power of Example is enduring because the resulting behavior is entirely consensual,
both individually and collectively.
Because it is dependent upon the free flow of information, Example as a means of influence has
gained extraordinary power with the advent of a hyper-connected world, and perhaps
the best case in point is the Arab Spring of 2011.
With the dramatic increase in access to information, the
people of Tunisia, Egypt. Libya, Bahrain and Syria, to name a few, experienced a
mass recognition of a universal fact: the
extent to which a society is free determines that society’s level of opportunity,
justice, respect and dignity. The flow
of rich and resonating examples – among them, the election of a black U.S.
President with a Muslim name, a seminal event regardless of one’s political
beliefs - overwhelmed the barriers of conventional information control and
solidified the convictions of many Arab peoples that they were entitled to
nothing less than the same freedoms as other countries.
No act of force or persuasion could have sparked the Arab
Spring, and only the most brutal acts of force can impede it (as we are seeing
in Syria), but not forever. The lesson
for the United States is clear and reassuring:
our greatest weapon for making the world a better place is neither sword
nor sanction nor coercion.
Our greatest weapon is our Example.
This is not a new concept.
We call it the American Dream because it is tangible proof of how our
values connect with happiness and prosperity, and it continues to come true
every day. Social media has given the
light of Liberty the equivalent of a new million-watt bulb, and from that, the
virtues of freedom and opportunity – the Example
of the United States - are reaching the world’s citizens with an
ever-increasing degree of impact.
Of course, every dream does not come true and we are far
from perfect. Deficiencies like torture,
decreasing educational standards and Jersey Shore are not American points of
pride, and we certainly have an unacceptable share of poverty and gun violence,
but no nation in the world better exemplifies the universal value of freedom and
opportunity than ours.
In contrast, when we employ force or persuasion to change
behavior – as in the case of drones and sanctions that hurt the innocent, or
nation-building through extended occupations – the power of Example is obscured and the resulting
polarization has the unintended consequence of strengthening our enemies. The collateral damage of a drone attack includes
not just the innocent who are killed, but the suddenly indoctrinated youth who
survive and vow revenge. Our culture and
values are unable to penetrate the modern day medieval societies that become increasingly
isolated and fortified as a result of our use of force.
Through Example, we
can instead lay the groundwork for many of the world’s conflicts to ultimately resolve
themselves. It won’t work everywhere and
it won’t work overnight, but those who cling to barbaric ways of life will inevitably
be displaced by a new generation that will seek, if not demand, the basic human
rights of freedom and opportunity.
This is not a pacifist strategy, but in fact an upgrade of
our weapons of war to match the times. We must recognize that the conventional methods
of force and persuasion are ineffective at influencing large numbers of people. Our global connectivity demands artillery
more suited to the conquest of hearts and minds rather than land and resources,
and in a complex world with intricate layers of conflict, our Example is still the best weapon the
world has ever known.
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